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Automotive and auto parts industry: master the uneven development opportunities
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From cost competition to quality competition, the transformation and upgrading of China's auto parts is to usher in a new era. China's auto market, there are at least 10-20 years of rapid growth, but the auto parts service and after-sales service market will be a long-term, stable and a huge market.
Chengguan Forklift steering knuckle Learn Chinese auto market in 2012 continued the trend of overall dull, but the industry are some bright spots, uneven development has played a decisive role in reason. Looking to 2013, we believe that this trend will be intensified, to grasp the investment opportunities of this feature particularly important.
Passenger cars subsequent development must be polarized. This is determined by the law of the development of the industry, changes in the long-term growth rate of the industry transition to the mature phase of rapid development, has led to increased competition within the industry, the role of the customer learning curve has led customers to enhance vehicle quality , these problems have prompted enterprises to be able to cope with superior competitive advantage, naturally as the industry growth pole Ashkenazi, as well as the Korean series, some of the advantages of independent businesses to focus on attracting customers.
Subject to the ownership in the repression, heavy truck sales growth in 2013 is not optimistic. In our scenario analysis, the GDP average growth of 7.5%, the the heavy truck ownership update rate of 10%, in 2015 to restore the conditions of supply and demand balance, followed by three years of heavy truck sales compound growth rate of only 2%.
New environment, be able to grasp the technology trends or particularly important industries to relocate parts company. Following this logic, the field of spare parts in 2013 we are optimistic about: 1) automatic transmission industry chain; 2) the development of lightweight aluminum parts company.
We believe that the the uneven trends advantages enterprise will have a significant investment value. Specifically: 1) in the dominance of the industry growth pole company Volkswagen, GM will continue to grow, continue to benefit from the the SAIC investment value of this process highlights; 2) to lead the development of the domestic SUV market is expected to become a new growth pole of China's auto industry Great Wall Motor is still cause for concern; 3) lead emissions upgrade to benefit from the common rail system to enhance the share of Weifu Tech to important investment nodes; 4) DCT industry chain has become the industry new impetus, precision forging technology will continue to benefit from ; more companies to give a "recommended" rating.
Chengguan Forklift the steering knuckle information, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that the first 10 months of this year, China's auto production and sales exceeded 15 million, after several consecutive years of rapid growth of China's auto market, the growth is slowing down, seems to have usher in the era of the "slight increase". However, the auto parts industry as an important part of the automotive industry, and its development prospects remain favorable. January to August this year, the total industrial output value of China's auto parts manufacturing industry reached 1.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.5% over the same period last year, slightly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of 23.9%, but industry-wide growth rate of 12.6%.
At present, the scale of China's auto parts industry has been highest in the world, 20,000 enterprises scale. However, due to a lack of self-development funds, high energy consumption, the majority of low value-added, its competitiveness in the market as users on the pursuit of quality and the quality of the new product, there has been increasingly defeated momentum. This is in the area of core technology components is particularly evident. |
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